BB19 Odds and Opinions
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By MattD

Once again a very pleasant hello to everyone!     Ready for another double eviction? We have our 2nd one tonight. Jason's going to be voted out tonight, in what was a relatively uneventful week in the house. Looks like we might have our first tie vote of the season, Paul's hands are going to apparently be clean once again and what else is new. As always there's plenty to discuss, so let's get to it.

The Friday 9/15 show is going to be a highlights show, yes? What else could it be? We've already had one show that was just highlights, so maybe it's possible it'll be something else. They usually have two evictions that week with one of them being taped and shown on the Wednesday show. So there's a remote possibility they could be doing that for the extra show instead. It would be nice if they used that show for Part 1 of the final HOH, so we'd have something to watch and see how it played out. But I can't see them basing a whole show around once competition, so it's likely just a highlights show.

THIS IS THE WORST SEASON EVER!!! (again)  A couple years ago I was making fun of the people that inevitably say things like this every year, usually after their favorite player gets voted out. By this time of the season you're always reading these posts about how the show sucks, how these houseguests are clueless, etc. I guess that's the definition of being addicted to something. You don't necessarily like it, but something makes you want to keep doing it. In any case, there does have to be a worst season, and this one comes closer than most. But here's the thing, it hasn't been boring, it's been pretty entertaining to be honest. on the other hand to this point it's been predictable, and the cast has been quite unlikeable. I don't know at this point I'd say it's been THE worst, but it's been well below average. Off the top of my head I'd still say BB9 is the worst. A lot of people would say BB15 is the worst, and it was a pretty terrible season, but that was the year Helen who I met at my Open Call made it and lasted 60-65 days or whatever, so for me it gets points for that (and the winner Andy I've met about 4 times since then) . I would bring up BB6, because of the people that ended up controlling the game were so bad that in my opinion it had an effect on future seasons. The next season was all-stars, but after that is when they came up with "America's Player" and then in several seasons since then they've given America the power to vote for certain people to have power. BB11 was a bad year that ended well when Jordan won. Natalie, Chima, Lidya, that whole side of the house was unbearable. The season isn't over, but right now I'd put BB19 as maybe the 4th or 5th worst of all time, with BB9 still being the worst.

Odds: A big target is being taken out this week, so the odds will reflect that. Right now Paul's road is even smoother than I thought it would be. Again he only has to lose once, it's not a lock for him yet. I still can't see Kevin or Raven winning. Alex isn't in a good spot. I'd be surprised at this point if one of Paul/Christmas/Josh doesn't win.

Paul 3-2
Christmas 3-1
Josh 5-1
Alex 9-1
Kevin 20-1
Raven 30-1
Jason 50-1

Paul 3-2: I'm not rooting for him at this point either, but he's gotten things perfectly going his way at this point. At the very beginning he was voted the 3-week safety thing because of who he was, but he was also targeted for that reason so it cancels out. I don't think he would have been evicted anyway. Josh is now on to him to an extent, and assuming Jason kind of senses it too. You're walking a fine-line when your doing the things the way Paul's doing them. It's hard for him to make a move now because of it. Can he win HOH tonight? If so, what will he do? Is he going to try to win it? If Jason blames Paul for his eviction, and speaks of it on his way out he door, then yes he will and then he'll do what he can to take down Alex. If Jason doesn't say anything , and everyone is cool with him, then I don't think he'll try for it.

Christmas 3-1: The biggest thing that has happened this week is Josh trying to convince Christmas that Paul is playing for himself, and Christmas having none of it. I don't know that Christmas blindly trusts Paul as much as she doesn't think she can make it to the finals without his help. I think Christmas can trust him to keep her safe tonight, plus maybe one more eviction after that. If she's in the final 4, and she or Josh gets POV, they need to get rid of him if possible and take their chances with Raven or Kevin in the final 3. The other thing is it might be too late to stop him. Both Andy (BB15) and Mike (BB7) won every HOH from here on that they were in. Neither one of them were known for being great at comps, so she and Josh might not get a chance to go after him even if they want to.

Josh 5-1: He'll be well remembered for a long time after this, that's for sure. He's smarter than he appeared. He's done better than I thought he would. I don't know if he'll make it to the end, and if he does, how's his jury management? *I* would vote for Josh over Christmas at this point, but I don't have a vote, and I wasn't in the house, so there's no social end to it for me. This can change quickly, but right now I can see Kevin or Raven being dragged to the finals by Paul and getting killed. For Josh to have a chance, he needs to be a comp beast from here on.

Alex 9-1: It'll be good to see the fallout when Jason gets evicted. Production is really making Alex look better than she deserves to. To be fair I think they try to make everyone look as good as possible for as long as possible. I mean if even the casuals hate most of the HG's how is that good for ratings? As for Alex, if she doesn't win HOH or POV she's probably done. If she wins one and say Josh goes home, then she'll be sitting fairly good. But she's gotta get a win tonight.

Kevin 20-1: For him to win, Paul or someone would have to drag him to the finals, and then the jury would have to give him 5 "protest" votes AGAINST Paul or whoever he's up against. I hope he wins Favorite Player, that'd be nice.

Raven 30-1:  Still there.

Jason 50-1: There'd have to be some kind of a mix-up for him to stay tonight. When he leaves he'll have questions to answer of course. It's too bad, because outside of that he's been a very good houseguest.

Odds for 2nd evictee:

Alex 5-8
Christmas 6-1
Josh 6-1
Raven 7-1
Kevin 7-1
Paul 10-1

Unless there's a change in plans it's Alex vs the house tonight. If Alex does win a comp, then it's suddenly very interesting , especially if it's the HOH.

Predictions:  Jason goes in a tiebreak 3-2, Josh wins HOH, Alex goes home. Then the next eviction, they'll evict Raven because they'll run out of people to evict without getting blood on their hands.

That's all for now, enjoy the episode!!!!

MattD  (@MattD34 on twitter)

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