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BIG BROTHER 19
OPINIONS, ODDS, AND PREDICTIONS FOR JULY 27
By Mattd


Hello again everybody!! Well today is Day 37 and somehow there is still 13 people in the house in spite of evicting someone on Day 1. If the season is indeed 92 days like I've been hearing, then we're just 10 days away from the "halfway" point. With this "Battle Back" and other twists to keep giving houseguests more chances, the season just keeps dragging on and on. It still appears Ramses will be going home tonight, and although the blindside has been watered down a bit, there's a good chance at some fireworks on the live show tonight. As always there's plenty to discuss, these are my thoughts:

I didn't think you had it in you: Big Brother Canada is coming back for a 6th season after numerous petitions, letters, e-mails, etc sent by many of you. Congratulations and a big pat on the back to each and every person that did something to try to make it happen. My thought was so many of this was coming from the USA, I didn't think they'd be that impressed, but gladly I was wrong. I still think it's going to be a struggle to be on Global during that time of the year and be that successful, but again thanks for proving me wrong. Very well done.

"Expect the Expected": For the second year in a row we've had a "Battle Back" competition and for the second year in a row, the biggest alpha male has made it back in the house. Last year Victor was someone that most of us really liked, Cody on the other hand is someone most of us dislike. It would have been neat to see Cameron end up winning that like he almost did, but it wasn't to be. Frankly the worst twist they have is when someone who's already lost and (in most cases) been out of the house, gets to come back with a clean slate. As exciting as the Double Eviction nights are, I rather see them cut those out and simply not bring anyone back, than do it the way they do it. In fact you could  have the same length of a season in days and still have one double eviction, if you do away with the "Special Eviction Night" the 2nd to last week. The show where the 5th place person gets evicted is tape-delayed anyway. Have the same amount of days, have one double eviction night, you can do away with the taped eviction, and you won't have to cut the feeds. Anyway as you know Jessica (somehow) won the power to veto an eviction, so yes a 2nd person will get to come back (or Cody will get to come back a 2nd time, which isn't  far-fetched). In the unlikely event Jessica ends up not using her power, you can bet there will still be a 2nd person coming back . Last year they had that stupid thing with the "Round-trip ticket" that nobody got to use, so they brought back jury members to compete for a chance to come back, it was an endurance comp and predictably it came down to Victor and Paulie. So if Jessica doesn't end up using this, there will something like that later on.

Odds: I'm close to throwing in the towel on Mark and Raven. Jessica still has 2 more evictions after tonight to use her power. I'll actually be surprised if one of the first six people I have listed don't win, but there's too much time left to rule very many people out. Here goes:

Paul 4-1
Alex 13-2
Jason 7-1
Elena 8-1
Kevin 9-1
Christmas 10-1
Matt 11-1
Jessica 12-1
Josh 13-1
Cody 15-1
Raven 17-1
Mark 20-1
Ramses 40-1

Paul 4-1: Again people, remember there are THIRTEEN players left in the game. Just because someone is doing what Paul wants right now doesn't mean they'll be like that the whole game. Yes time-wise the game is already 40% over, but including tonight you have to survive 12 more evictions (including the one Jess vetoes) to make the final two. It wasn't that long ago  when you only had to survive 12 for the whole season, in the very beginning you only had to survive 10. This is a long, long game. Last year people whined that Nicole "didn't do anything" until the end. Well the game started in June and on September 1st , 7 of the 16 people were still in the house. The way they do things now the season just drags on. In spite of the fact the Houseguests moved in 36 days ago, the game is pretty much just beginning.

Alex 13-2: Capable in comps, seems to me like she's doing well socially, and doesn't seem like she's anyone's immediate target.

Jason 7-1: Strategically he's a bit shaky, because he's indecisive, but overall I can see him being a contender.

Elena 8-1: She sure needs to get Mark out of the house quickly . Other than that she's in good with the right people. Paul's people aren't going after her anytime soon, and Cody/Jess at this point aren't either. I don't know how good of an end game she'd have if she did indeed make it to the final 5-6 or so. It would depend who else is also there.

Kevin 9-1: You wouldn't think he would go all the way and win would you? I like his chances better than anyone at making it past Labor Day, but what would happen after that? He's the runaway favorite to win America's favorite Houseguest though he might lose a few votes because he's already got 25k (and $27).

Christmas 10-1: She could be a couple spots higher I suppose. She had an impressive run in that last HOH. It wouldn't surprise me if she won a few comps.

Matt 11-1: He needs to do something, ANYTHING! I've been giving him the benefit of the doubt because (again) with this many people still around, you don't really have to do that much as long as you step it up when you have to later on in the game. I just don't get the feeling he's going to do that at this point, but again if you start these from the bottom, the people with worse odds, are either probably going home, are big targets, and/or loose cannons. By process of elimination I have him in the middle, but I don't have a lot of hope for him.

Jessica 12-1: Now why didn't she take a swing at Paul when she had the chance? With all the criticism the people that are working with Paul are getting, she's clearly been on the opposite side of the game as him and didn't go for him. Getting out Josh wouldn't have been bad, but you put him up against Ramses, then don't change it when you have a chance? If Paul/Josh were on the block, it would have been a useful HOH, getting out Ramses does nothing for her. She's probably guaranteed two more evictions of safety, because if she has to use it next time, and the following week doesn't go well it's probably Cody going again (unless he wins POV).

Josh 13-1: Assuming he remains safe tonight, he's doing better than I thought he'd be doing. I still think he's too much of a loose cannon to win, and he has some people that will come after him, so I don't know how long he'll be there, but he's turning into a fan favorite especially with the feed-watchers.

Cody 15-1: Quite a few things would still have to happen for him to win. It seems rather remote for him to make it to the finals to begin with, but he would then have to well liked enough for people to vote for him in spite of his being evicted at least once. At this point, I don't see how.

Raven 17-1: I'm staying out of it.

Mark 20-1: Didn't realize he was THIS big of idiot/douchebag. There's a lot of people in the house that need to go.

Ramses 40-1:  Doesn't look good for him. I overestimated him. As a fan of the show I thought he'd be better than he has been.

Predictions: 7-3 is where the vote is now with Elena, Mark, and Cody dissenting. I think it'll stay that way unless Kevin does a "hinky vote" on his own. Tonight I think will be a booth HOH comp, so about anyone can win. I'll predict that whoever does win will target Cody/Jessica, so we'll spend the entire week knowing whatever happens is for naught. Didn't Julie say something about an important announcement tonight that will change the game or something? I don't know what that will be, but if it doesn't involve someone leaving unexpectedly I'll say next week will be a double eviction.

That's all for now!! Enjoy the show!!

MattD (@MattD34 on twitter)

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