BB19 Odds and Opinions
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BIG BROTHER 19
Opinions, Odds, and Predictions for 7/20/2017
by Mattd


Hello once again everybody!!  It was quite an eventful week, although in terms of the game not so much. Pending production interference Dominque's time in the house will come to an end tonight, she was the target pretty much from the beginning, so in that sense the week was uneventful. But of course a million other things happened along the way and things just aren't where they were at this time last week. As always there's plenty to discuss, so let's get to it.

This cast scares me a bit: We've already had one person leave the house, we've now had an incident where Mark threw a cup of hot sauce in Josh's face over a game of pool! That doesn't even include how out there Cody was, or Jessica. Dominque thinks God talks to her. Raven goes out her way as much as any houseguest in the history of the show to be a victim. It's an entertaining cast, no doubt but although I don't know that I'd put them in the same class as BB9, they're as off the wall as the BB2 people were. Putting Paul as the lone vet was a huge mistake, it always is to have just one vet. In BB11 Jessie came back as the only vet, and the two sides of the house were pretty much split between those who thought he was some kind of rockstar because he played the previous year, and those who didn't. Anyway enjoy the ride.

Den of Temptation: Another one of the silly twists they've come up with as part of this theme is one houseguest can accept the temptation and block one of the next four evictions. The best way to do this and the way I thought they would do this would be to end the voting before an eviction and then tempt the houseguests either late Thursday night or on Friday. What could happen if you don't do it that way is the consensus could tilt towards the person being targeted that particular week, and to an extent that's what happened. I didn't think it could be used in this eviction, but as it turns out it looks like it can. Another thing is Julie specifically said there'd be four people playing in the Battle Back, but if it was used tonight there'd only be three. The other thing she said that I forgot about is she said the houseguests might be able to block the Battle Back winner from reentering. Maybe that's tied into this. There is going to be a whole episode based on the Battle Back, so at the end they might just say none of it mattered? If that's the case then Cameron has pretty much been serving a jail sentence. You can the same argument for the rest of them that are sequestered, but none of them had to leave on night one. As far as who might been won the vote this week, I don't have any idea. People think Jessica won because she was in a good mood afterword, but I can't remember a single person saying they were voting for her. There's people that think Dominque might have won, that's possible, if you read twitter you'd think she was greatest thing since sliced bread. She's got support. Another site reported that Raven at one point whispered something Paul which might have been "I got it" but couldn't make it out. This voting has been going on a long time, and when it started she was popular, so that's possible. Kevin is the best one in there  at keeping something like that a secret, and he's got plenty of support. I'd be surprised if it wasn't one of those four.

Odds:

Paul 4-1
Alex 7-1
Matt 8-1
Ramses 9-1
Jason 10-1
Elena 10-1
Kevin 11-1
Raven 11-1
Christmas 12-1
Mark 14-1
Josh 16-1
Jessica 18-1
Dominque 100-1

Here's what we'll do with Paul, I still think at some point someone will indeed knock him off, about an 80% chance. It's a long game, and I still think it'll happen, but the 20% chance it won't makes him the favorite right now. Nobody else has anything like a 20% chance of not only making the finals but winning, so I'm putting Paul at 4-1, and I'll probably keep him around there until we get to the final five or so, or until he's evicted. It could be next week, it could be never. Alex, Jason, and Ramses saw their stock improve in my opinion, while Mark took the biggest fall.

Paul 4-1: Ok, what he did was idiotic. He decided he wanted Dominque out, but even after it was apparent it would happen he went into overkill like he always does. Like I've said it doesn't surprise me he wouldn't be as popular the second time around. To add insult to injury on the shows he seemingly gets about 80% of the DR time, and every show seems to revolve around him. As far as what he was thinking about doing, I'm glad he didn't do it. I for one am certain he isn't racist, but he owes it to himself not to have to deny that 150,000 times when he gets out of the house. The people that wildly supported him and Victor on twitter last year now mostly hate him, and many of them want to believe he's a racist and will look for anything to justify it.

Alex 7-1: Won an endurance HOH, and almost the POV. I thought she did as well as she could have with her HOH, I don't think she put a big target on her back, getting rid of Dominque was fine. Even if Dominque comes back, and wins something she's likely to target Paul and not her.

Matt 8-1: I don't have any idea if he's capable of winning this game or not. If he does what he's been doing he won't, because right now he's not doing much of anything. He's doing a pretty good job of not making enemies, so if he can step up to the plate later and get things done he would have a chance. So far this season when figuring these odds out, I start at the bottom and work my way up, so by process of elimination he's 3rd best. 8-1 seems pretty good now, but he just coasts along we'll be in the final 4-5 and he'll still be 8-1, which would probably put him last.

Ramses 9-1: A very good week for him, I actually thought he might be targeted this week. He's smart and has a thorough understanding of the game, it didn't start out great for him but he's sitting better now.

Jason 10-1: He's gotten away from the Cody/Jessica stench, and is in a better position now. Also he performed impressively in both comps this week. I think Alex is a good ride or die for him.

Elena 10-1: I got all the through talking about how goofy this cast is without mentioning her, that's saying something. Things haven't gone terribly enough for her to rule out her chances of winning. And she did very well with the endurance.

Kevin 11-1: I'm hoping he got the temptation, though I don't know if he did. One thing about him getting 25K right off the bat is there probably won't be much loose cash given away at the POV comps and such. I thought of that when he took the cash prize and it was just $27. Anyway his lack of knowledge of the game will probably do him in at some point. He might have the best chance of making the final 4-5.

Raven 11-1: She's gone from being popular to being a punch-line . She likes attention a great deal. We'll have to see how these next few weeks play out if she has much of a chance of winning.

Christmas 12-1: Breaking her foot is going to hamper her chances way more than I originally thought. It used to be not that many of the comps were very physical, a few would be but not that many, but now more and more of them are so it's hurts her that much more. I don't think she'll make it.

Mark 14-1: I've got a better feeling what this guy is about. He's pretty much that bag of meat that's next to Elena. Speaking of that incident on Monday with Josh,  how did he *think* Josh would react when he threw the hot sauce at him? Where do they find these people?

Josh 16-1: I sort of root for him a little bit, but if you vote for him to get one of these special powers they've been giving away with the Temptations, don't cry about it if he uses it to do something you totally didn't expect him to do. I'm fairly neutral this season myself, so I'll be entertained by an HOH week of his with him being such a loose cannon, but I'm not going to be voting him any power.

Jessica 18-1: We'll see if Cody returns and how that might affect Jessica's game if he's back. Also a number of people think she might have won the temptation. If that's the case I have no idea where her votes would have come from.

Dominque 100-1: Even if she wins the temptation it's unlikely to change the game much. In all likelihood as far as the game it would just give us another week like this one. It's possible something could happen to shift the target to someone else, but unless she would win the next HOH herself or possibly Mark, I think she'd probably be targeted again.

Predictions:  I think we're looking at a 10-0 vote to evict Dominque. Doubt Mark will see much point in throwing a vote her way. Other than that anything could happen tonight. I'll say Cody will win the Battle Back, although it's not for sure he'll come back. I'll predict 13 people will be in the house again next week.

Ok that's it for now, enjoy the shows!!!

MattD (@MattD34 on twitter)


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Big Brother 19