BB19 Odds and Opinions
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BIG BROTHER 19
OPINIONS, ODDS AND PREDICTION FOR JULY 6
Written by MATT DOWEN


Hello again everybody!! The 19th season of Big Brother is under way! So far we've had 1 person evicted, 1 leave the house, 6 people in total have been on the block (including the 2 that are no longer there), and 1 person has broken her foot. Other than that nothing much has happened. On top of that looks like we're getting a blindside tonight as well. As always there's much to discuss so let's get to it.

Sorry about Big Brother Canada: They had a nice run went for 5 seasons but for the time being anyway, it looks like it's over. I guess the main thing is they don't have the luxury of going up against summer re-runs, and whatever else the other networks spit out this time of the year. At first the show was just on Slice, before it moved to Global, so I'm surprised they couldn't just move it back if the ratings weren't good enough. Big Brother is currently the only reality show that I watch. I gave up on Survivor  a few years ago, because it seemed like the game became more about finding the hidden immunity idols than anything else. I used to watch The Amazing Race but got tired of it because it often came down to who had the best cab driver or whatever (if an ex-BB player is on there I might watch it a little). Anyway I don't think our show could get enough ratings to be on that time of year even though I think it's a better game. Why? Where are we lagging behind? For me it's the casting. Those two shows are age-diverse, our show is not. If Survivor cast their show like those shows that used to come on MTV at midnight, they probably wouldn't be on TV at all, or if they were it'd still be a summer show like ours, same with Amazing Race. Although the casting is done by the same company, it's been better in Canada then here, but it hasn't been anymore age-diverse. You have to try to appeal to a larger audience if you're going to be on TV during that time period. Kudos to those that are trying to bring the show back. I know Evel Dick did one of his podcasts for free which is great, and others have set up online petitions and what not. But I'm going to try my hardest not to be rude here: If you were a Canadian TV executive why would you give a *damn* if Americans want the show to continue? I understand there's some Canadians on these sites so again I applaud those that are trying to help, but I really don't think they're gonna be swayed. But I hope I'm wrong, maybe they will be.

This year's cast is indeed a step in the right direction: I don't judge the casting until the end of the season, but I feel like they've made an effort this year to improve it. We don't have the usual 13 of the 16 in their 20's, there's several people in their 30's and Kevin's in his mid 50's. Cameron was from suburban Chicago, Ramses is from Grand Rapids, Michigan. *If* one of those went an Open call it wouldn't make sense for them NOT to go to the one that I went to in Chicago. That being said if either of them were there I probably didn't meet them, if I did I don't remember either of them. Jason is from rural Iowa, about 3 1/2 hours from me, there was indeed an Open Call in Des Moines this year, so he might have gone to that. Overall I like the cast so far. They didn't need to add Paul to it, but it's been entertaining.

Odds: There really isn't any way to tell who's going to win at this point but you start getting an idea of who won't. Once again my odds are to win, not just to make the finals. A couple months from now, there might be a situation where someone might be sitting better than anyone as far as not getting voted out, but I might not think they could get the votes needed to win. Anyway right now I don't have much, but here goes:

Dominque 9-1
Jason 9-1
Alex 10-1
Matt 10-1
Ramses 11-1
Mark 11-1
Paul 12-1
Kevin 12-1
Raven 13-1
Christmas 13-1
Elena 14-1
Josh 20-1
Jessica 20-1
Cody 20-1
Jillian 50-1
Elena (left)
Cameron (evicted 1st night)

Dominque 9-1: Seems smart, and seems to get along with people well enough. Excellent first week.

Jason 9-1: He's one of my favorites so far, with him it depends on how well his friends do in the comps. I kinda think most people are going to go after Cody and Jessica or the other couples. I'm guessing he's ok for awhile but I could be wrong. Also worrisome is it sounds like he might cast a minority vote tonight which wouldn't be good.

Alex 10-1:  Has already been on the block and saved herself, a candidate to be targeted, but long-term of she can survive would really have a chance at the end I think.

Matt 10-1: The rest of the people in the couples are going to need to distance themselves from Cody and Jessica and are already in that process. New alliances will be popping up all over the place in the next few weeks.

Ramses 11-1: I'd have him a little higher if wasn't assured of being on the block one of the next 3 evictions. I thought with these temptations that person would be getting the risk, not somebody else.

Mark 11-1: We'll see how the fallout from tonight affects him.

Paul 12-1: This sort of thing drives the fans nuts. Bringing back one vet or a small group of them will make some of the other houseguests star struck. But this also makes them a bigger target, but production stepped in and stopped that part by doing what they did. Paul's going to be in the game next week because of production, there's no getting around that. If you're going to do a twist like this, why wouldn't the person who took the temptation and got 3 weeks safety, then also be assured of being on the block one of the next 3 weeks after that? For example Kevin took the 25K, but as a result was forced to not win the 1st HOH. he didn't "curse" somebody else into not being able to win it. I don't know that production necessarily wants him to win, but they made sure he was going to be around for awhile.

Kevin 12-1:  He is my favorite so far. You can't blame him for taking the money obviously, and to add to Paul's comment yes he wouldn't have gotten back in the game if SIXTEEN people turned a chance to win 25K. I'm surprised only seven people went for it. You only get 50K for getting second. Anyway Kevin's likeable and entertaining and I hope he's there for a long time.

Raven 13-1: Her hair looks better without the twin buns she's always got going. There was a picture of her and Paul posing, and people wanted to make a big deal out of it. I've been to Cast Parties  5 of the last 6 years, having your pic taken with one of them doesn't mean they *know* you. It's a great experience but if I ever make it in there and there's a vet that I've met, the chances are over 95% that it won't mean anything.

Christmas 13-1:  Well she's had an eventful time of it being on the block twice and breaking her foot. Unless it flips back somehow, she should be ok tonight, and we'll see what's in store for her.

Elena 14-1: A lot of the feed watchers don't like her, say she's loud. I'm hoping to get more of a chance to watch the feeds and see for myself.

Josh 20-1: I originally thought if someone left the house without being evicted it'd be him, but that turned out to be someone..else. Personally I think he's too much of a loose cannon to all the way and win, but I hope he gets the next HOH.

Jessica 20-1: The producers have it in their heads that we all want to see as many showmances as possible (most of us don't), and that's why people like Jessica get cast on the show.

Cody 20-1:  He's a comp beast, you have to give him that, his weakness is well about everything else.

Jillian 50-1 Had 4 different opponents on the block. She really hasn't done anything to deserve to stay. She seems nice enough, but this seems like a good week for her to go.

Elena:  I do feel bad for her as a couple of the meatheads seemed to go after her for no reason at all. But if you're going to publicly  call someone a racist, you need to be 110% sure of yourself. I'm sorry about the issues she had that were so bad she left the house.

Cameron: It's just silly that they did this the way they did. If anyone gets to come back, I hope it's him.

Predictions:  Jillian is evicted, it could be anywhere from 7-5 to 10-2. My guess is the next HOH will be a question and answer that anyone can win, and I'll say Cody becomes the first week one HOH to be evicted.

That's it for now!!

We'll see you next week!!

MattD (follow me on twitter @MattD34).

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