mar22 BBcan Odds
By MattD

Hello once again everybody!! Well the triple eviction is done and dusted. Three newbies have joined the three vets in the jury house and another one is on the way. We'll be down to the final four, and near the finish. As always there is much to discuss, these are my thoughts:

 Well how did you like format?: Once again there were 16 houseguests, but last year there had been just 14, until Tim and Nikki entered the fray on day 7, after Paige had been evicted, so there had never been more than 15 competing at any one time. For me the ideal season is about 75-80 days, 14 houseguests with no second chances for evictees. This will be about 69 days with 16 houseguests and no second chances. The interesting thing is with just two weeks to go, we still had half the cast, 8 people still in the house. That of course makes it more likely your favorite is in the house that late into the show. The triple eviction is exciting, but one thing to point out is the HOH is essentially 2 HOH's the way they do it. Unless they expand the show to 90 minutes for that night, there's no realistic other way you can evict 3 people in an episode, so you can't blame them, just saying that is a very very powerful HOH that they fight for. Also I've complained about his before but I think those corny little themes they have turn off more casual viewers than it attracts. Both the USA version and the Canada shows do it. I mean a space odyssey, what does that even have to do with Big Brother? Then the last POV, they had a Baywatch theme in the middle of this...ohhh-k. Anyway all in all they did well in the time they had. I like the 16 people better than 14-15 with someone getting two chances, maybe a couple of the Canada people will come down to LA and play in the USA version sometime.

Odds: Well, once again Kevin has won HOH and gotten Ika and Demetres on the block, annnddd once again it appears neither are going home. Demetres looks like he'd be in the strongest position, but all it would take is for Karen to change her mind and vote him out, and it's over for him. It doesn't look as though that will happen so the odds will be based on the assumption that Karen will join Ika and vote out Dillon.

Demetres 9-4
Ika 3-1
Kevin 3-1
Karen 4-1
Dillon (probably gone)

Demetres 9-4:  Well since my article last week, he won the triple eviction HOH, and as mentioned evicted two people, and even though he didn't win either comp this week, it looks like he's staying. It's easy to forget he missed by one vote of being the first one out. Would have been a whole different game, Ika wouldn't have lasted much longer than she did in BBCAN2, so yeah it's anybody's guess what would have happened. But what's important is what did happen and what will happen. It's hard to bet against him at this point, but he's still a big target, so he needs to win something to make sure he's safe.

Ika 3-1: Well zero HOH's and zero POV's, but she's still here as well as her showmance partner/comp beast. Not to compare her to Dr.Will (at all) but the year Will won without any competition wins, there was no POV yet, so no one has won without winning either an HOH or a POV since then. My memory isn't quite as it once was but Memphis in BB10 didn't win an HOH but won some POV's, and made it to the finals and lost. Cowboy in BB5 made the finals without winning an HOH but he won the final 4 POV, and like Memphis won Part 2 of the final HOH. With Ika I get the feeling she's going to make the finals regardless, not sure how she'll do with the jury if that holds true. We'll see what happens.

Kevin 3-1: Well those were some unproductive HOH's. Look I can understand what he was thinking, that he had to get out Demetres, and he did what was really a panic move by nominating Dillon. If he at least nominates Karen, then I'm sure that would have gotten rid of Demetres. What would have crossed my mind would be to keep both Ika and Demetres, get Karen voted out, then Dillon would surely keep him if he won the POV next week, rather than go to the final 3 with Demetres and Ika. Kevin's mind is he has to keep winning or he's done, so all he was worried about was getting rid of Demetres. At first thought I would have put the 2 of them up as well, but the more I thought about it, I think getting rid of Karen and making a "final 2 deal" with Dillon might have been the best play. It won't be easy for him, but if he makes it, he would need the 3 vets on the jury to vote for him plus William plus one more. I'm not saying that'd be a sure thing, but's it's doable.

Karen 4-1: Karen on the other hand I cannot make any sense of what she was/is thinking by voting out Dillon. Here's the possibilities I can think of. 1) She wants Kevin to lose even more than she wants to win. This would be grossly stupid, but that's the way she's been talking. 2) She wants to see Demetres and Ika in the finals and is ok with getting 3rd. This would be hard to imagine, but Tim decided at the end last year he didn't want to win. 3) She thinks her best chance to win is to be in the final 3 with Demetres and Ika. On the surface this would be again pretty stupid, but maybe she has a master plan to get one of them to vote out the other. 4) She has thought for some time that she can talk anyone but Kevin into keeping her around, and she just simply wants him out to the point that she'll keep Demetres as long as he (Kevin) is still there, no matter what. I can't think of any other logic as to why she would be better off with Demetres in the game than Dillon. Of course she still hasn't made the decision. Hey, if it works I'll give her the credit.

Dillon (probably gone): He gave it a great run, but the more the numbers dwindle, the more vulnerable you are in a week where you fail to win a comp. He was sitting good at this time last week, he was sitting good earlier this week, but the combination of Kevin's panic move and Karen's mysterious one, he's going to the jury house. If he ends up staying I'd put him at about 3-1.

Predictions: Dillon voted out 2-0. Demetres wins both HOH and POV and Kevin gets evicted, leaving the final 3 Ika, Demetres, and Karen.

That's all for now!! See ya next week!!!

MattD  (@MattD34 on twitter)


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