april5 bbcan5


A very pleasant hello once again!!  Well tonight's the night, the triple eviction. It will obviously be the biggest night of the season until the very end. Looks like they finally will get Jackie out of the house, and the stage will be set. As always there's plenty to discuss. Here's my thoughts:

Russell Hantz on BB19? I was still watching Survivor when he was on that show. At first the things he did were entertaining and sometimes funny, but for me the novelty of someone like him quickly wore off and for the most part I rooted against him. As a player, he did some clever things, got all the way to the final 3 twice. But he was one of those people that don't understand the words "Jury Management", and got zero support when it was time to vote. To top it off he acted as though the jury voting was a flaw in the game, and acted like he got something stolen from him when inevitably he would lose. Now, all that being said, and knowing they are probably going to do some stunt-casting, I'm not against the idea. In recent seasons it's been a thing to cast siblings of ex-houseguests, so even though Russell's brother actually did (briefly) play BB before, in this case we'd be getting the real thing. I like the idea of bringing in people that have had some success on other shows. What I'd like better would be to not do any stunt-casting at all and have 16 new houseguests, but with that not being realistic, I'd be fine with this. As far as how well Russell would do, I have no idea. He'd be an early target, and also BB is more mentally challenging in my opinion. In Survivor you have your immunity challenge, someone wins it, then that night someone gets voted out. In BB unless it's a double (or triple) eviction, you have several days to decide who's going. But anyways, it's possible it's just a rumor at this point, in fact I doubt the producers even know what they're going to do at this point. Just throwing my two cents in.

The Triple eviction: When we had this two years ago, the format for this was essentially it was the same as a double eviction only the HOH nominates three instead of two, then after the POV, out of the three that end up on the block, you vote to save one, thus evicting the other two. We're going to go from having eight houseguests to five in a matter of minutes, it'll be quite the empty house. Now a couple of things to point out: the HOH comp is going to be short and quick, and likely something anyone has a chance to win, and whoever does win, is assured of being in the final five. It's a huge,  huge comp, and probably anyone can win it. To me it adds more excitement when anyone can win a comp, not just a select few. It makes the game more about strategy and  less about being a physical threat. The best part of these double( and triple) evictions is literally anything can happen within the hour. Everybody starts the show vulnerable to being evicted. It's one of the best things they've come up with. In BBUSA 5, 6, and the beginning of all-stars what they'd do is have a double eviction week, which would have been ok except they'd have the actual 2nd eviction the next day (Friday) and then show the eviction tape-delayed meaning either they'd have to shut down the feeds, or bring them back and give away what happened. They came up with the double eviction episode the 2nd time around on the all-star season. It's way more efficient and way more exciting.

Odds: Nobody is really dominating this game. There's no Derrek, or even an Andy, and no one that's going to get themselves out of a pickle like Dan could do. If you win the game, you win it, that's all that counts and whether someone like me thinks you're the best or the worst all-time winner is irrelevant. That being said, I doubt anyone here will be considered by too many as being one of the best. As of right now I don't think Dillon, Karen, Ika. or Demetres will take any shots at each other tonight, meaning if any of the four of them win HOH, then all four will be in the final five. With Kevin being ineligible to compete, that's four chances in six it will happen.

Dillon 7-2
Karen 4-1
Demetres 5-1
Ika 6-1
William 7-1
Kevin 8-1
Dre 10-1
Jackie (no odds)

Dillon 7-2: I don't know if he can win, but his chances seem better the more he moves through the game. He's good enough at comps, and in a good position as of right now. Barring a twist it would take 5 votes to win the game if he makes the finals. As it stands now Neda, Sindy, Bruno, and Jackie would be 4 votes. If he's up against Karen could he get at least 3 of those?

Karen 4-1: She's great entertainment especially for those who watch the feeds, and it looks like she's got a chance at winning this. After the show is over Kevin's going to regret not at least nominating her. His chances are better with Karen or Ika out of there than with Jackie.

Demetres 5-1:  I might be underestimating his chances. If he makes it through the triple eviction and this time next week, is in no danger of going, I might make him the favorite. This is a big corner for him to turn right here, and I think he can do it, but he's still got to do it. If he makes the final four, it'd be hard to bet against him. This was a huge week for him to be put up next to Ika, and not survive but apparently have Ika survive as well.

Ika 6-1: She's doing what she has to do. A few weeks ago Karen made the point that the time to get rid of her would in the final three. That could very well be what happens.

William 7-1: He still hasn't been nominated yet. He the only Houseguest left that hasn't been. It doesn't look like he's sitting too great at the moment, but if he survives tonight, anything is possible. One thing I should point out is even though no one is dominating the game, no one is in an impossible position either. I don't think anyone has burned enough jury votes to disqualify themselves from winning.

Kevin 8-1: Winning HOH mostly just gave himself a stay of execution, he really wasn't able to move the needle too much. Getting Jackie out of the way just doesn't do much for him.

Dre 10-1: Things have really turned against her at the moment. Combine that with her inability to win comps and it looks like she's doomed. If she's got any bullets left in her gun, she better fire 'em.

Jackie (no odds): Dillon and Karen are keeping Ika and with Demetres also voting that seals her fate. She lasted longer than she probably deserved to, but that's the nature of the game, she wasn't a dangerous enough target for someone to go after.

Predictions:  Dre has talked about voting out Ika so the first vote might not be unanimous, so I'll guess 4-1 to take out Jackie. I'll guess at Dillon winning HOH tonight, Demetres the POV with the final nominees being KevinDre, and William, with William surviving.

Ok that's all for now. Enjoy the show!!

MattD  (@MattD34 on twitter).


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